Li Ning Company Limited (02331)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Consumer Discretionary - Textiles & Apparel - Footwear (Sportswear Brand) | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | Hong Kong Stock Exchange close on Friday, September 11, 2026; all prices in Hong Kong dollars (HK$)

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

Li Ning (02331.HK; RMB counter 82331) closed at HK$13.01 as of September 11, 2026, with a total market capitalization of approximately HK$33.628 billion, hitting an intraday low of HK$12.73, close to the 52-week low range. The company's 2026 H1 revenue was RMB 15.235 billion, up 2.8% year-on-year; profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 1.816 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, with gross margin rising to 50.9%, but management has lowered the full-year revenue growth guidance from "high single digits" to "low single digits," and the net profit margin guidance from "high single digits" to "mid-to-high single digits," indicating that the short-term operating environment remains weak.

The performance structure showed divergence: apparel revenue was RMB 5.805 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year, becoming the main growth engine; footwear revenue was RMB 8.284 billion, up 0.6% year-on-year, essentially flat; equipment and accessories revenue was RMB 1.147 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year. In terms of channels, e-commerce, direct-operated, and franchised dealer revenue grew 5.1%, 4.2%, and 1.7% respectively, but overseas business declined; as of June 30, 2026, there were 7,579 Li Ning brand sales points, a net decrease of 30 from the end of 2025, with an inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months.

Profit improvement has not yet fully translated into improved operating cash flow. In 2026 H1, net cash inflow from operating activities was RMB 954 million, down more than 60% year-on-year; selling and distribution expenses increased 8.1% year-on-year, and advertising and marketing expenses increased 28.2% year-on-year; however, the company still had net cash of RMB 19.391 billion, with a relatively healthy balance sheet, and maintained a dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%, with an interim dividend of RMB 35.12 cents per share. The company continues to invest in professional sports technology, running and basketball resources, Olympic cooperation, Curry Brand cooperation, outdoor and new retail areas, but whether these investments can drive revenue to re-accelerate still needs to be verified by performance.

On the technical front, the stock price is below MA5 of approximately HK$13.48, MA10 of approximately HK$13.45, MA20 of approximately HK$13.71, and MA50 of approximately HK$14.37, with short-to-medium-term moving averages in a bearish alignment, representing a pullback of approximately 44% from the intraday high of HK$23.42 in February 2026. On September 11, turnover was approximately HK$528 million, turnover rate was 1.58%, volume ratio was 0.89, and there was a large block sell of 4 million shares in late trading involving approximately HK$52.04 million, indicating short-term selling pressure remains concentrated; the first support reference is HK$12.73 to HK$13.06, strong support reference is HK$12.65 to HK$12.73, and the moving average resistance zone is at HK$13.45 to HK$13.71.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

• Sports and casual footwear (FY2025 revenue RMB 14.651 billion, +2.4%, 49.5% of total revenue); apparel (RMB 12.327 billion, +2.3%, 41.6%); equipment and accessories (RMB 2.621 billion, +12.7%). FY2025 total revenue RMB 29.598 billion (+3.2%), gross margin 49.0% (-0.4pct), net profit attributable to equity holders RMB 2.936 billion, net profit margin 9.9%
• Own/associated brands: "Li Ning" main brand and sub-brands "China Li Ning," "Li Ning 1990," "Li Ning YOUNG" (childrenswear)
• Third-party brands/joint ventures: Double Happiness (table tennis), AIGLE (outdoor), Kason (badminton)
• By region (FY2025): Northern China RMB 13.989 billion (47.3%), Southern China RMB 15.182 billion (51.3%), other regions RMB 427 million (-19.5%, approximately 1.4%)
• By channel (FY2025): Franchised dealers RMB 13.773 billion (+6.3%, 46.6%), e-commerce RMB 8.743 billion (+5.3%), direct operation RMB 6.655 billion (-3.3%)
• 2026H1: Total revenue RMB 15.235 billion (+2.8%); gross margin 50.9% (+0.9pct); net profit RMB 1.816 billion (+4.5%), net profit margin 11.9%; footwear RMB 8.284 billion (54.4%), apparel RMB 5.805 billion (+11.8%, 38.1%), equipment and accessories RMB 1.147 billion (-17.7%, 7.5%); channels approximately wholesale 46%, direct-operated 23%, e-commerce 31%, DTC revenue share >50%
• Store network: As of 2026-06-30, Li Ning brand sales points totaled 7,579 (franchised 4,891, direct-operated retail 1,172, Li Ning YOUNG 1,516); as of 2025-12-31 it was 7,609; inventory-to-sales ratio maintained at approximately 4 months
• Strategic direction: Professional sports technology (running, basketball, and fitness training as core; "Super Boom Capsule" midsole, aerospace dynamic thermal insulation technology, etc.); Chinese Olympic Committee 2025–2028 official partner (covering 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, 2026 Asian Games, 2028 Los Angeles Olympics); signed NBA star Curry and Curry Brand; expanding into outdoor (COUNTERFLOW), tennis, pickleball, soccer, and other emerging tracks; advancing new store formats (flagship Dragon Store, Gold Label series); cumulative R&D investment over ten years exceeding RMB 4 billion (company basis)

2.3 Industry Chain Upstream/Downstream Position and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Data source: Latest period is 2026 interim results (unaudited, announced 2026/08/20, sources AASTOCKS, Securities Times, and the company's 2026 interim results conference transcript); historical annual data sourced from etnet earnings annual report page and Securities Times. Financial statements are presented in RMB, stock price/market cap in HKD. Other 2026 interim details: Gross profit RMB 7.751 billion (YoY +4.5%), gross margin 50.9% (YoY +0.9pct), net profit margin 11.9% (YoY +0.2pct), operating profit margin 16.1% (YoY -0.4pct); basic earnings per share RMB 70.4 cents; interim dividend RMB 35.12 cents per share (prior year period 33.59 cents), maintaining approximately 50% payout ratio; by category footwear RMB 8.284 billion (+0.6%, 54.4%), apparel RMB 5.805 billion (+11.8%, 38.1%), equipment and accessories RMB 1.147 billion (-17.7%); by channel franchised dealers +1.7%, direct-operated +4.2%, e-commerce +5.1%, overseas declined; selling and distribution expenses RMB 4.640 billion (+8.1%, 30.5% of revenue), advertising and marketing expenses RMB 1.713 billion (+28.2%, 11.2% of revenue, A&P expense ratio YoY +2.2pct), R&D RMB 367 million (2.4% of revenue); net cash inflow from operating activities RMB 954 million (YoY -60%+, 2025H1 was RMB 2.411 billion), net cash RMB 19.391 billion (YoY +RMB 200 million), cash conversion cycle 35 days, inventory-to-sales ratio 4 months; as of 2026/6/30 Li Ning brand sales points 7,579 (net decrease of 30 from end of 2025). Key guidance changes: Management lowered the 2026 full-year revenue growth guidance from "high single digits" to "low single digits," and net profit margin guidance from "high single digits" to "mid-to-high single digits." Other FY2025 details: Gross profit RMB 14.489 billion (+2.4%), gross margin 49.0% (-0.4pct), net profit margin 9.9%, basic earnings per share 113.91 cents, full-year dividend 56.95 cents, payout ratio 50%, net operating cash inflow RMB 4.852 billion. Other FY2024 details: Gross margin 49.4%, net profit margin 10.5%, earnings per share 116.98 cents. FY2023 earnings per share 123.21 cents. It can be seen that revenue has continued to grow at a low rate, net profit has declined for two consecutive years since 2023, and 2026H1 restored +4.5% growth. The 2025H1 net profit of approximately RMB 1.738 billion is the comparative figure used in the research notes to derive TTM net profit; the research notes did not directly show its YoY growth rate.

2026 interim revenue of RMB 15.235 billion, +2.8% year-on-year, slightly slower than 2025H1's +3.29%, but net profit recovered to RMB 1.816 billion, +4.5% year-on-year, ending the previous two consecutive years of decline (FY2024 -5.5%, FY2025 -2.6%), with marginal improvement in earnings quality, and net profit margin and gross margin both slightly improved year-on-year (net profit margin 11.9%, +0.2pct; gross margin 50.9%, +0.9pct). Structurally, the apparel category (+11.8%) was the main growth engine, footwear was essentially flat (+0.6%), and equipment and accessories declined significantly (-17.7%); on the channel side, e-commerce and direct-operated performed relatively well, while overseas business declined. Profitability faces pressure: operating profit margin -0.4pct year-on-year to 16.1%, selling and distribution expenses +8.1%, of which advertising and marketing expenses surged 28.2%, A&P expense ratio +2.2pct year-on-year, reflecting the company's proactive increase in brand investment. Cash flow is clearly under pressure, with net cash inflow from operating activities of RMB 954 million, -60%+ year-on-year (mainly due to Curry cooperation prepayments and increased cash expenses), but net cash still reached RMB 19.391 billion, +RMB 200 million year-on-year, with a healthy balance sheet. The biggest negative is that management lowered the 2026 full-year revenue growth guidance from "high single digits" to "low single digits" and net profit margin guidance from "high single digits" to "mid-to-high single digits," mainly due to pressure on Q2 foot traffic/discounts and no improvement in July-August trends, which directly triggered multiple institutions to lower forecasts and target prices in late August, and caused the stock price to hit a 52-week low.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

Consensus forecast source is etnet earnings forecast page (ashares.etnet.com.hk and other mirrors and English pages); research notes explicitly note that different mirror pages have different snapshot dates and consensus figures show significant divergence (2026E net profit of 2,613/2,803/3,091 million RMB respectively), and no single one should be taken alone; 2026E range is high of 3,183 to low of 2,524 million RMB (Snapshot A) and high of 3,144 to low of 2,163 million RMB (Snapshot B). Individual broker forecast sources: Kaiyuan Securities (2026/08/25, Sina HK stock research report), Founder Securities (2026/08/22), Guotai Haitong (2026/06/04), Guosen Securities (2026/03/23), Guojin Securities (2026/03/23), Huachuang Securities (2026/03/27). Research notes note: March forecasts were generally based on the old guidance of "2026 revenue high single-digit growth," and after August H1 results, multiple institutions have lowered; the more recent the forecast, the lower the figure. All forecast amounts are in RMB. Research notes did not provide forecast revenue and forecast EPS corresponding year-by-year figures (except consensus EPS).

3.3 Valuation Levels and Institutional Ratings

As of August 28–September 11, 2026, stock price: 2026/08/28 closed at HK$13.65, 2026/09/11 closed at HK$13.01 (-0.38%), also 08/18 reported HK$14.25; total market cap approximately HK$35.28 billion (08/28), moomoo recorded HK$36.83 billion on 08/21. Valuation: Static PE (based on FY2025 EPS) approximately 10.8x; PE (TTM, based on trailing EPS of approximately HK$1.36 for the twelve months ended June 2026) approximately 10.2x (AASTOCKS basis 10.165x, East Money 82331 basis 10.05x); price-to-book ratio approximately 1.15x (net asset value per share approximately HK$11.897); dividend yield TTM approximately 4.66%–4.94%; 52-week range HK$13.25–23.42 (AASTOCKS), stock price year-to-date decline approximately -26.9%, past 1 year approximately -27.4%. Based on broker target prices and consensus, the current price corresponds to 2026E PE of approximately 10–12x, 2027E approximately 9–11x; the 2026E PE range given in individual stock research reports is 12.2–16x (different methodologies). Exchange rate reference: HK$1 ≈ RMB 0.858 (AASTOCKS 08/28), Guotai Haitong uses HK$1 = RMB 0.87. Note: After August H1 results, the mainstream target price band has shifted down to HK$16–23, ratings remain mainly "Buy/Overweight" but some downgrades to "Neutral" have appeared; the average target price of "HK$25.6" and most high target prices (HK$24–27) come from pre-H1 earnings reports (March–June), with limited reference value (see "Uncertainties/Items to Note" item 4). Since late August, affected by lowered performance guidance, weak consumption, and "Haidilao shareholder reduction event" sentiment associations, the stock price hit a 52-week low, with valuation at a low range in recent years. Valuation multiples differ slightly due to data source methodology (static/TTM, HKD or RMB denomination), all subject to the update time noted by the source; stock prices are delayed 15 minutes or closing data.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Li Ning Company Limited (02331.HK) Target Confirmation and Business Overview

Li Ning Company Limited is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with stock code 2331 (HKD counter) and 82331 (RMB counter), and an additional RMB counter 82331. The company is a Chinese sportswear brand operator with a single main brand "Li Ning," offering multiple categories including running, basketball, fitness training, badminton, table tennis, sports casual, and outdoor. As of the end of 2025, there were approximately 7,609 sales points nationwide. Source: HKEX announcement text (East Money reprint AN202608201828218891), Morningstar 02331 profile. Note: Adjacent code interference items such as 00631 (Sany International) and 00931 (China HK Power) appeared during the search and have been excluded.

4.2 2026 Interim Results Announcement (released evening of August 20, 2026)

Li Ning announced its 2026 interim results: revenue RMB 15.235 billion, +2.8% year-on-year (2025H1: RMB 14.817 billion); gross profit RMB 7.751 billion, +4.5% year-on-year; gross margin 50.9%, +0.9 percentage points year-on-year; net profit attributable to equity holders RMB 1.816 billion, +4.5% year-on-year (2025H1: RMB 1.737 billion); net profit margin 11.9%; basic EPS 70.40 cents (2025H1: 67.43 cents). Net operating cash inflow RMB 954 million; cash conversion cycle 35 days (+4 days year-on-year); average working capital as a percentage of revenue 7.8%. Interim dividend RMB 35.12 cents per share (2025H1: 33.59 cents), ex-dividend date September 3, 2026, payment date September 16, 2026. By segment: apparel revenue RMB 5.805 billion (+11.8%, 38.1% share); footwear RMB 8.284 billion (+0.6%); equipment and accessories RMB 1.147 billion (-17.7%). By channel: franchised dealers +1.7%, direct-operated +4.2%, e-commerce +5.1%; overseas other regions revenue declined. Sales points: as of June 30, 2026, Li Ning brand totaled 7,579, a net decrease of 30 from the end of 2025. Source: HKEX announcement text (East Money AN202608201828218891), AASTOCKS "Blue Chip" article, Securities Times stcn.com/article/detail/4095681.html, Zhitong/investing hk.investing.com/article-1620173. Revenue/net profit/gross margin/dividend figures are consistent across AASTOCKS, Securities Times, Zhitong Finance, and 10jqka, with high reliability.

4.3 2026 Interim Report and Electronic Communication Arrangements (around September 9, 2026)

The company announced that the Chinese and English interim reports have been uploaded to the official website and HKEXnews; electronic means have been adopted for publishing corporate communications, and no printed copies will be provided; notification letters and reply forms have been sent to non-registered shareholders. Source: Sina Finance reprint (sohu.com/a/1073920011), 2026-09-09. Note: This is a routine information disclosure procedural announcement with no substantive operating information.

4.4 Monthly Return of Securities Changes for the Month Ended August 31, 2026 (submitted September 3, 2026)

Total issued ordinary shares remained at 2,584,813,753, treasury shares 0, no changes during the month; public float meets the minimum 25% requirement. Options: The share option scheme adopted on June 13, 2024 granted 12,606,500 new share options during the month at an exercise price of HK$13.90, not yet exercised; other scheme options and two tranches of convertible bonds unchanged. The two convertible bonds have conversion prices of HK$3.183 and HK$2.6 respectively. Source: Securities Star wap.stockstar.com/detail/AN2026090300020428, Sohu Finance (Caiwen) sohu.com/a/1071355823. Both sources have consistent figures, with high reliability.

4.5 Major Shareholder Viva Goods' Multiple Rounds of Increasing Li Ning Stake

Viva Goods Company Limited (00933.HK; Li Ning himself has long served as its board chairman/co-CEO) as Li Ning's largest shareholder (accounted for as an associate company), has continuously increased its Li Ning stake in the open market through multiple rounds since late August 2026: cumulative acquisition of 83.623 million shares from October 2025–August 27, 2026, total consideration approximately HK$1.277 billion; further acquisition of 29.6195 million shares from August 28–September 1, 2026, approximately HK$398 million; on September 2, 2026, wholly-owned subsidiary "Viva China Development Limited" acquired 17,253,500 shares (approximately 0.67%), total consideration approximately HK$228 million, average price approximately HK$13.23, shareholding increased from 16.91% to 17.58% (corresponding to approximately 454.4 million shares); further acquisition of 18,530,000 shares on September 3–4, 2026, together with the aforementioned August 28–September 4 cumulative acquisition of 65,403,000 shares; on September 7, 2026, further acquired 19,231,000 shares (approximately 0.74%), total consideration approximately HK$263,736,000 (approximately HK$264 million), average price approximately HK$13.71, shareholding increased from approximately 18.30% to 19.04%. On September 9, 2026, Viva Goods did not publish another increase announcement that day, interpreted by the market as "suspension of increases," and Li Ning's stock price fell approximately 6.9% intraday (to HK$13.25, turnover approximately 24.99 million shares/involving approximately RMB 337 million). According to ET Net statistics, Viva Goods spent approximately HK$1.658 billion cumulatively on multiple days of increases from August 27 to September 7, with shareholding at approximately 19.04%. Source: Securities Times stcn.com/article/detail/4169896.html (2026-09-02), 10jqka/Zhitong Finance (2026-09-03), Commercial Radio 881903.com/news/finance/2648203, East Money announcement reprint 00933 announcement AN202609071829105614 (2026-09-07), AASTOCKS (2026-09-04, 2026-09-08), ET Net "Stock Movement" (2026-09-09). Another shareholder information: A report stated that on August 31, 2026, "Viva Goods Company Limited" increased its Li Ning stake by 7.781 million shares at an average price of HK$13.5354, approximately HK$105 million, with shareholding after the increase at approximately 417 million shares (16.12%) (Source: Securities Times stcn.com same article). ⚠️Uncertain/Needs notation: The "Viva Goods Company Limited (August 31, 16.12%)" and Viva Goods' own stated "16.91% before September 2 acquisition" have a discrepancy of approximately 0.8 percentage points, possibly due to different entities (listed parent vs. subsidiary acquisition entity) or different disclosure timing. Both figures are from secondary reports and have not been verified one by one against HKEXnews original disclosure of interests forms, reliability is questionable, and it is recommended to refer to HKEXnews disclosure of interests records. ⚠️Also note: Viva Goods' multiple rounds of increases were "paid with external financing cash," representing leveraged increases, which could pressure its finances if the stock price continues to decline, a potential risk point.

4.6 Strategic Cooperation and Marketing Progress (2026 H1)

In 2026 H1, according to interim results and management discussion: strategic cooperation with the Chinese Olympic Committee (COC), serving as the official sportswear partner of the Chinese sports delegation for 2025–2028; Milan Winter Olympics Chinese delegation award ceremony outfits use "aerospace heat-locking cotton" and other technologies. Long-term strategic cooperation with NBA star Stephen Curry and his brand Curry Brand (basketball and other professional equipment and event culture promotion). Outdoor independent store "COUNTERFLOW" launched, with the first "Dragon Store" flagship to be launched in H2; established a new retail department to layout instant retail. Source: Securities Star "2026 Interim Management Discussion and Analysis" (stock.stockstar.com/RB2026091000005928), Securities Times stcn.com/article/detail/4095681.html.

4.7 Auditor Change

Current auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) retired after the conclusion of the annual general meeting on June 12, 2025, and Ernst & Young (EY) is proposed to be appointed as the new auditor (subject to shareholder approval). Source: Zhitong Finance (m.zhitongcaijing.com/article/share.html?content_id=1292926, 2025-05-14).

4.8 Litigation Matters (to be followed up)

The company's 2025 annual results announcement disclosed "no major acquisitions or disposals during the year, but facing a lawsuit regarding a historical loan, which the company believes does not need to be repaid and is actively defending." Source: Securities Star results summary (stock.stockstar.com/AN2026031900039057). ⚠️The details and latest progress of this litigation were not verified again in this round of search, with only a single source from the results announcement, marked as to be followed up.

4.9 Share Buyback Status

No public evidence of Li Ning company itself repurchasing shares (buyback) during this period was found; the monthly return already checked shows treasury shares of 0 and no repurchase cancellation during the month, so the "buyback" item currently has no substantive content. ⚠️Due to search step limitations, not exhaustively verified, recommended to further confirm via HKEXnews "Share Buy-back Report."

4.10 Broker/Institutional Instant Views (for cross-reference)

China Renaissance Securities: Maintains "Buy," lowered target price to HK$16.75 (2026-09-11, 10jqka stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20260911/c679842674, moomoo reprint). View: Q3 sell-through expected to grow at low single digits, full-year profit may decline; continued increase by major shareholder boosts confidence, running shoe matrix, basketball resources, Gold Label series strengthen professionalism. Daiwa: Channel surveys show August retail sales may have slightly turned positive (boosted by improved weather and KOL livestreaming), but demand remains weak excluding this factor, July-August combined retail still declined, discounts widened; based on Daiwa's earnings forecast, Li Ning is at approximately 12x forward 12-month PE, valuation is low, waiting for fundamental turnaround (2026-09-04, 09-07, AASTOCKS). ⚠️The above are target price/forecast content, belonging to single broker or individual institution views, not multi-institution consensus; and limited relevance to this section's "Recent News and Announcements" topic, for background only.

4.11 Time Period and Limitations Note

This summary focuses on August–early September 2026 (a period of intensive announcements primarily covering 2026 interim results, major shareholder increases, monthly returns, interim report, and ratings). Data "as of" dates: interim results 2026-08-20; monthly return as of 2026-08-31 (submitted 2026-09-03); major shareholder increases 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07; suspension of increases and stock price movement 2026-09-09; ratings 2026-09-11. Main limitations: ① One inconsistency in major shareholder shareholding percentage methodology (16.12% vs 16.91%), not verified against HKEXnews original forms; ② "Historical loan litigation" only single source; ③ Not confirmed whether the company itself has repurchased shares; ④ Some stock price/turnover figures from secondary quotes pages, may have timing differences. Recommended to verify the above doubtful items against HKEXnews original announcements and disclosure of interests records before finalizing.

5. Stock Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

5.2 Technical Indicators

As of the close on September 11, 2026, Li Ning (02331.HK) closed at HK$13.01 (-0.38%), with an intraday low of 12.73 hitting a new low near the lower bound of the 52-week range, daily amplitude 3.06%, turnover rate 1.58%, turnover approximately HK$528 million. Technically, the stock price is below MA5 (approximately 13.48), MA10 (approximately 13.45), MA20 (approximately 13.71), and MA50 (approximately 14.37), all short-to-medium-term moving averages, showing bearish alignment, with a pullback of approximately 44% from the intraday high of HK$23.42 on 2026-02-25. Recent decline catalysts include: late August interim results and full-year guidance downgrade (H1 revenue RMB 15.24 billion +2.8%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.82 billion +4.5%, company lowered full-year sales growth to low single digits, net profit margin to mid-to-high single digits), September 9 Nomura report stating July-August sales growth further slowed and maintaining Neutral (target price HK$13.8), and chairman Li Ning's entity Viva Goods (00933) suspending increases. September 9 single-day decline of 6.04%, September 11 late trading saw a large block sell of 4 million shares involving approximately HK$52.04 million, closing near the day's low, indicating short-term selling pressure remains. Note: The momentum indicators (RSI/KDJ/MACD) and Bollinger Bands values referenced in this section are missing from the research notes and not included in the judgment; P/E ratio has uncertainty due to different source methodologies. Also note that the same-stock RMB counter 82331 (approximately RMB 11.19–11.56) and 02331 HKD quote cannot be mixed.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk Warning: The following content is solely a subjective scenario analysis based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicators, does not constitute investment advice, nor any buy, sell, or hold instruction. Please independently judge based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

① Key Technical Levels

② Next Week Scenarios (Subjective Weighting, Not Statistical Probability)

• Consolidation (Subjective weighting relatively high, approximately 60% (subjective heuristic weighting, based on current technical and capital flow pattern judgment, not statistical probability)): Stock price repeatedly consolidates within the HK$12.73~13.71 range, on one hand constrained by the MA10/MA20 resistance band of 13.45~13.71, on the other hand finding support in the recent low area of 12.73~13.06. Trigger conditions: No new company-level or industry-level catalysts, Hang Seng Index and blue-chip consumer sector remain stable, turnover maintains recent norm (approximately HK$500 million level), volume ratio does not show significant expansion.
• Weaker Downside (Subjective weighting moderate (subjective heuristic weighting, based on current bearish alignment and late trading selling pressure judgment, not statistical probability)): If the September 11 intraday low of HK$12.73 is breached, further downside to the 52-week low range of 12.65~12.73 (strong support), entering price discovery range after breach. Trigger conditions: Blue-chip consumer sector or Hang Seng Index continues to weaken, new reduction/rating downgrade news appears, or large block selling similar to September 11 late trading reoccurs, with turnover simultaneously expanding.
• Rebound Strengthening (Subjective weighting relatively low (subjective heuristic weighting, based on current bearish moving average alignment and fundamental guidance downgrade background judgment, not statistical probability)): If volume confirms a break above the moving average cluster resistance band of 13.45~13.71 and holds, short-term有望 to repair toward MA50 at approximately HK$14.37. Trigger conditions: Clear positive catalyst appears (such as southbound capital turning to net inflow, industry sales data improving, major shareholder resuming increases, etc.), and single-day turnover significantly higher than recent norm.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

Liquidity background: September 11, 2026 turnover rate 1.58%, consistent with 40.726 million shares ÷ 2.585 billion shares ≈ 1.575%; daily turnover approximately HK$528 million, volume ratio 0.89, slightly below recent norm. At 16:08 on the day, a large block sell of 4 million shares at HK$13.01 involving approximately HK$52.04 million appeared, accounting for approximately 10% of daily turnover, indicating relatively concentrated selling pressure in late trading, closing near the day's low. Shareholder structure and top ten shareholder concentration, public fund/social security/QFII and other institutional holdings details were not provided with verifiable data in this research notes, so not listed; such data is typically disclosed quarterly with lag, actual structure may have changed, subject to HKEXnews latest disclosure of interests. Based on the day's volume and large block characteristics, the absorption strength near HK$12.73 in the short term is worth close tracking, but liquidity conditions can change rapidly with the market environment.

Volume Confirmation Signal: If subsequent single-day turnover continues to expand to significantly higher than the recent norm of approximately HK$500 million (e.g., continuously expanding to above HK$800 million), it can be viewed as a signal of capital intervention or increased divergence; conversely, if turnover continues to shrink to below HK$500 million while the price fails to recover HK$13.45, the short-term weak pattern is likely to continue. This threshold is an observational reference based on the recent turnover range, not an operational instruction.

④ Key Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

• Watch whether the first support range of HK$12.73~13.06 and strong support range of HK$12.65~12.73 can be held; if the close effectively breaks below strong support, there is no verified technical reference below.
• Watch whether the moving average cluster resistance band of HK$13.45~13.71 (MA10/MA20) can be recovered with volume; if holding above, can track to MA50 at approximately HK$14.37.
• Watch whether single-day turnover can continue to expand to significantly higher than the recent norm of approximately HK$500 million (e.g., above HK$800 million), as an observation signal of capital intervention or increased divergence.
• Watch for news changes: chairman's entity Viva Goods (00933) increase activity, broker rating and target price adjustments, and overall performance of the blue-chip consumer sector and Hang Seng Index. The above are all observation ideas, not operational instructions.

The above scenario analysis is based on September 11, 2026 closing data and historical prices and technical indicator calculations; short-term stock prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors including news, capital flows, and overall market environment; technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not constitute a guarantee of future actual movements, nor buy/sell recommendations. Please independently judge based on the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

• Risk of revenue growth and earnings forecast downgrades: The company has lowered the 2026 full-year revenue growth guidance from "high single digits" to "low single digits," and net profit margin guidance from "high single digits" to "mid-to-high single digits"; some brokers have also lowered 2026 to 2028 net profit forecasts. If consumer demand and foot traffic do not improve, actual performance may continue to fall short of previous expectations.
• Risk of category growth over-reliance on apparel: In 2026 H1, apparel revenue grew 11.8% year-on-year, but footwear only grew 0.6%, and equipment and accessories declined 17.7%. If apparel growth slows while footwear, a core category with a relatively high share, remains stagnant, overall revenue growth may face further pressure.
• Risk of expense investment eroding profits: In 2026 H1, advertising and marketing expenses grew 28.2% year-on-year, selling and distribution expenses grew 8.1% year-on-year, A&P expense ratio rose 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while operating profit margin actually declined 0.4 percentage points to 16.1%. If Olympic, Curry Brand, and other brand investments do not timely translate into sales, profit margins may continue to face pressure.
• Risk of operating cash flow deterioration: In 2026 H1, net cash inflow from operating activities was only RMB 954 million, a significant decline from RMB 2.411 billion in the same period of 2025, with cash conversion cycle rising to 35 days. Information shows cash flow was affected by Curry cooperation prepayments and increased cash expenses. If prepayments, expenses, or working capital occupation continue to increase, the gap between profit and cash flow may widen.
• Channel and inventory risk: As of June 30, 2026, sales points were 7,579, a decrease of 30 from the end of 2025, with inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months; at the same time, direct-operated, franchised, and e-commerce performance diverged. If foot traffic is weak, discounts widen, or channel adjustments continue, it may affect terminal sales, gross margin, and dealer operating quality.
• Risk of shareholder increases and financing leverage: Viva Goods has made multiple rounds of increases recently, with shareholding rising to approximately 19.04%, but related increases were paid with external financing cash; if Li Ning's stock price continues to decline, it may pressure the increasing party's financing arrangements and financial condition. There is also a discrepancy in reported shareholding percentages of 16.12% vs 16.91% for some holdings, subject to HKEXnews disclosure of interests original forms.
• Technical breakdown risk: As of September 11, 2026, the stock price is below MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50, showing bearish alignment, and approaching the 52-week low range of HK$12.65 to HK$12.73. If this range is effectively breached, existing data does not provide verified technical support below, and the stock price may enter a new price discovery phase.
• Litigation and disclosure uncertainty risk: The company's 2025 annual results announcement disclosed a lawsuit regarding a historical loan, which the company believes does not need to be repaid and is actively defending, but this round of information did not verify the detailed progress of this litigation; additionally, some shareholder shareholding percentages and the company's own buyback status still have items to be further confirmed with HKEXnews original disclosures.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

Li Ning's current core growth logic lies in relatively fast apparel category growth, improved direct-operated and e-commerce channels, investment in professional sports technology and brand resources, and Olympic cooperation, Curry Brand, outdoor, and new retail layout. In 2026 H1, both gross margin and net profit margin improved, net profit ended the previous two consecutive years of annual decline, and the company has RMB 19.391 billion in net cash, providing a financial buffer for continued brand building and product R&D.

However, at this stage the company is still in a phase of low revenue growth and operating quality repair proceeding in parallel. FY2025 revenue was RMB 29.598 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent was RMB 2.936 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year; 2026 H1 revenue growth further slowed, operating profit margin fell to 16.1%, operating cash flow contracted significantly, and full-year guidance was also lowered. Future observation focuses include whether apparel growth can continue, whether footwear can resume growth, whether discount and foot traffic pressure eases, whether marketing investment can improve sales efficiency, and whether profitability and cash flow can simultaneously repair after channel scale adjustments.

At the market level, the stock price is already near the 52-week low of HK$13.01, with valuation at approximately 8.02x dynamic P/E to 10.27x TTM P/E, P/B ratio approximately 1.02x, but the technical pattern remains weak, and some institutions lowered earnings forecasts and target prices after interim results. Viva Goods recently continuously increased its Li Ning stake to approximately 19.04%, which has certain supportive significance for market confidence, but its increases were paid with external financing cash, and the stock price fell significantly after the suspension of increases on September 9. Therefore, the stock's subsequent performance still depends on whether fundamental improvement and shareholder behavior can form sustained, verifiable support.

Data Sources

• Li Ning Co Ltd (02331)
• 02331.HK
• 上市公司行業分類表 - 業務類別
• 00931 中国港能 CHINA HK POWER - 免费即时股票报价 - 公司业务
• 00631 三一国际 SANY INT'L - 免费即时股票报价 - 公司业务
• 李宁上半年营收增长2.8% 服装品类收入同比增长11.8%
• 02331 李宁 LI NING - 免费即时股票报价 - 公司业务
• 業務概覽
• 02331.HK 李寧 | LI NING | 公司資料 - 業務概覽
• 李寧 (02331) 收入構成
• 李宁2025年营收增长3.2%至295.98亿元 股价一度上涨13%
• 李宁(02331)公司概况_港股行情_同花顺金融网
• 上半年营利稳健提升，李宁进入体育的“收获季”与“播种期” - 中国日报网 > 资讯速递 >
• 2025 全年業績
• 李宁：下半年要控风险，“不会为了追求规模增长放弃对经营质量的追求”
• 經濟通串流版 ET Net IQ Streaming - 李寧 LI NING COMPANY LTD.
• 02331.HK 李寧 | LI NING | 公司資料 - 財務比率概覽 - 02331 李寧
• 02331.HK 李寧 | LI NING | 公司資料 - 損益表概覽
• 02331 李寧 LI NING - 免费实时股票报价 - 盈利年报
• 02331 李寧 LI NING - 免费实时股票报价 - 盈利年报
• Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) 財務概覽 - 李寧 (2331)
• 82331 李寧－Ｒ LI NING-R - 免费实时股票报价 - 盈利年报 - 82331 李寧－Ｒ
• 2331.HK LI NING - Company Information - Financial Ratios Overview
• 02331 李寧 LI NING - 免费实时股票报价 - 财务比率 年报 Financial Ratio
• Li Ning Company (HKG:2331) Financials Overview - Li Ning Company Limited (HKG:2331)
• 年产运动鞋 5000万双，龙行天下携李宁、阿迪订单赶考A股
• 年产运动鞋 5000万双！龙行天下携李宁、阿迪订单赶考A股_资讯-蓝鲸财经 - 年产运动鞋 5000万双
• 湖南老哥给李宁、阿迪造鞋，一年卖出5000多万双
• 年产5000万双运动鞋！龙行天下携李宁、阿迪订单冲击A股
• 定远县鑫宇体育股份有限公司
• 湖南老哥给李宁、阿迪造鞋，一年卖出5000多万双 - 湖南老哥给李宁、阿迪造鞋，一年卖出5000多万双
• 一双运动鞋“跑”出大产业-----湖南日报数字报刊
• 【和松滋一起奔跑】“开门订单”排满上半年
• 湖南老哥给李宁、阿迪造鞋，一年卖出5000多万双 - 新浪财经
• 年产运动鞋 5000万双！龙行天下携李宁、阿迪订单赶考A股 - 年产运动鞋 5000万双！龙行天下携李宁、阿迪订单赶考A股
• 李宁公司长期占据公司前五大客户榜首（百万港元）
• 李宁求稳 去年库销比只有3.6个月 - 李宁求稳 去年库销比只有3.6个月
• 基于平衡计分卡下的李宁公司向“新零售”模式转型的绩效研究
• 阿迪、李宁的代工厂要上市？龙行天下挂牌仅一月即冲刺A股
• 李宁公司财务绩效分析
• 李宁(02331)_个股概览_股票价格_实时行情_走势图_新闻资讯_股评_财报_FinScope-AI让投资更简单
• () 股價、新聞、圖表、公司資料詳情
• 三大维度，透视李宁 (02331) 2026 中报的 “定力” 与 “远见”
• 02331 李寧 LI NING - 免费实时股票报价 - 盈利年报 - 02331 李寧
• 【券商聚焦】国信证券维持李宁(02331)“优于大市”评级 指公司渠道库存健康
• 稳健经营下的“进攻性”姿态：李宁2025财报的增量逻辑 - 洞察金融市场
• 【券商聚焦】国金证券维持李宁(02331)“买入”评级 指2025年业绩超预期
• 营收增长失速，李宁净利润两连降！预计今年营收同比持平
• 财报透视｜营收增长失速，李宁净利润两连降！预计今年营收同比持平
• 李寧有限公司 > 新聞中心
• 李宁(02331)发布年度业绩 毛利141.56亿元 同比增加6.02%
• 李宁(02331.HK)：短期加大投入以追求长期高质量增长
• 李宁2024年度业绩：收入增长3.9%至286.76亿元，净利润30.13亿元，派息比率50%-证券之星