Report date: 2026-09-13 | Price data: As of 2026-09-11 market close (A-share quote pages are mostly JS-rendered; the notes have been cross-checked against multiple sources; any figures from a single source or conflicting across sources are flagged) | Sources: 30 | Report engine: v1 (v2 available)

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Latest market data

Close	6.92 (+0.44% on the day; -4.16% over 5 sessions; -4.02% over 20 sessions)
Market cap	CNY 34.34 billion
P/E (TTM)	n/a (loss-making)
P/B (MRQ)	1.91x (21th percentile over 5.2 years)
P/S (TTM)	0.31x (14th percentile over 5.2 years)
52-week range	5.82 (2026-06-25) – 10.17 (2025-09-18)
Moving averages	MA5 6.92 / MA10 7.07 / MA20 7.29 / MA60 7.1
MACD (12,26,9)	DIF -0.07, DEA 0.001, histogram -0.142
RSI	RSI6 33.8 / RSI14 41.7
Bollinger bands (20,2)	Upper 7.96 / middle 7.29 / lower 6.61
Volume	0.32x the 20-day average
One-week range (about 68% coverage)	6.48 – 7.15 (-6.4% ~ +3.3%)
One-week range (about 95% coverage)	6.03 – 7.79 (-12.9% ~ +12.6%)

As of the 2026-09-30 close; calculated from daily price data (adjusted prices) and refreshed automatically each trading day. The one-week range reflects historical volatility only and is not a forecast. The report below was written on 2026-09-13; its prices and short-term scenarios reflect data at that time.

New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (000876)

Individual Stock Analysis Report | Industry: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery – Feed and Hog Farming | Report Date: September 13, 2026 | As of the 2026-09-11 close (A-share quote pages are mostly JS-rendered; the notes have been cross-checked against multiple sources; any figure from a single source or with conflicts between sources has been flagged)

This report is automatically compiled and generated by AI based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Summary

The most decision-relevant fact for New Hope Liuhe (000876.SZ) is this: the company's H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders was -RMB 1.702 billion, turning from profit to loss (according to East Money's 2026 interim report coverage). This means the improvement trend of cumulative profit of RMB 760 million in the first three quarters of 2025, up +395.89% year-on-year, was reversed in 2026 by the deep downturn in hog prices. In August 2026, the company sold 1.2061 million commercial hogs (up +26.28% year-on-year), but sales revenue was RMB 1.505 billion (down -1.89% year-on-year), with an average price of only RMB 10.46/kg (down -22.75% year-on-year); cumulative sales for January–August were 9.5381 million head with cumulative revenue of RMB 11.594 billion. The volume-up, price-down pattern is very pronounced, and sales volume growth failed to offset the price decline. Chairman Liu Yonghao also said in media reports that the hog farming business is still loss-making.

In terms of business structure, feed is the absolute main business: H1 2026 feed revenue was RMB 41.44 billion, accounting for 74.55%, with a gross margin of 5.23%, but the gross margin was slightly lower than 5.38% in H1 2025; the hog business had H1 2026 revenue of RMB 12.94 billion, accounting for 23.28%, with a gross margin of only 1.77%, sharply shrinking from 13.20% in H1 2025 and 8.16% for full-year 2025, and is the direct source of the deterioration in profitability. Overseas business is a structural highlight: H1 2026 overseas revenue was RMB 12.81 billion with a gross margin of 9.65%, significantly higher than the domestic gross margin of 3.26%, and the overseas share rose from 20.92% in H1 2025 to 23.05%.

On the capital operations front, the company's private placement has been completed: 459,363,957 shares issued, issue price of RMB 5.66/share, total funds raised of approximately RMB 2.60 billion, net amount of approximately RMB 2.585 billion, with the newly added shares listed on September 1, 2026. Because the actual funds raised were lower than originally planned, investment in the pig farm biosafety prevention and control and digital-intelligence upgrade project was reduced from RMB 2.338 billion to RMB 1.820 billion, and bank debt repayment was reduced from RMB 1 billion to RMB 765.31 million. The controlling shareholder and persons acting in concert did not participate in the subscription, and their combined shareholding was passively diluted from 55.38% to 50.25%; the controlling shareholder and actual controller were unchanged.

In the secondary market, as of the September 11, 2026 close, the price was RMB 7.52, down 1.18%, with a total market capitalization of RMB 37.315 billion and a circulating market capitalization of RMB 33.840 billion; turnover was RMB 419 million, turnover rate 1.24%, volume ratio 0.44, with volume notably low. The company has posted losses in recent years, with TTM/dynamic PE of -8.80/-10.96 and static PE of -20.91, which should not be interpreted on a valuation basis; PB is approximately 1.81–1.88, with net assets per share of RMB 3.9933. On chips, the current price is below the average holding cost of RMB 7.96, the area around RMB 7.95 above is a dense trapped-position zone, the bull-bear dividing point is RMB 7.33, and the 52-week range is RMB 5.82 to RMB 10.58/10.61. On institutional ratings, Guotai Haitong Securities gave an "Overweight" rating on December 15, 2025, and Hua'an Securities gave a "Buy" rating on September 10, 2025 but did not give a target price.

2. Company Overview

2.1 Basic Information

Item	Content
Stock code/abbreviation	000876.SZ / New Hope
Full company name	New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd.
Listing venue and board	Main board A-shares of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange; listing date 1998-03-11; issue price RMB 6.90–7, 40 million shares issued
Registered address	National High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province
Office address	No. 376 Jinshi Road, Industrial Park, Jinjiang District, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province; the contact address disclosed in the 2025/2026 annual reports is Floor 11, Tower T3B, Wangjing SOHO Center, No. 10 Wangjing Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing
Industry (CSRC/East Money)	Manufacturing – Agricultural and sideline food processing; East Money industry: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery – Animal Husbandry – Feed
Chairman/Legal representative	Liu Chang
General Manager	Tao Yuling
Board Secretary	Zhao Liang; Securities affairs representative Bai Xubo
Accounting firm	Sichuan Huaxin (Group)
Controlling shareholder/Actual controller	Controlling shareholder New Hope Group; actual controller Liu Yonghao family
Top three shareholders (as of 2025-09-30)	Southern Hope Industrial 1.329 billion shares (29.52%); New Hope - Debon Securities - 23 Hope E1 Guarantee and Trust Property Account 696 million shares (15.46%); New Hope Group 434 million shares (9.64%); China Securities Finance 2.79%, Tibet Sizhuang 2.24%, Tibet Shancheng 1.97%, Hong Kong Central Clearing 1.95%, with the top ten totaling approximately 66.66% (source: revised draft of the company's prospectus, republished in a Sina Finance announcement)
Share capital	The 2024 annual report dividend was based on 4,525,940,237 shares (approximately 4.526 billion shares). Note: several data vendors list registered capital of RMB 4.962 billion, which is inconsistent with approximately 4.526 billion shares, suspected to be a vendor data convention error or failure to update; flagged as doubtful, subject to the annual report/industrial and commercial registration
Number of employees	East Money F10 lists 43,753; the company website says "more than 40,000 employees"; moomoo shows "283," suspected to be a scraping error, not adopted
Equity participation in financial institutions (historical)	The company historically held a stake in Minsheng Bank through New Hope Investment (Baidu Baike says it once held 4.99%); this is historical information that has not been verified with the latest first-hand sources, and should not be cited directly

2.2 Main Business and Product Layout

Feed business: 2025 revenue RMB 76.02 billion, accounting for 71.14%, gross margin 5.10%; H1 2025 revenue RMB 35.48 billion, accounting for 68.72%, gross margin 5.38%; 2024 revenue RMB 68.70 billion, accounting for 66.66%, gross margin 4.90%; H1 2026 revenue RMB 41.44 billion, accounting for 74.55%, gross margin 5.23%
Hog farming and slaughtering (hog business): 2025 revenue RMB 28.53 billion, accounting for 26.70%, gross margin 8.16%; H1 2025 revenue RMB 14.37 billion, accounting for 27.83%, gross margin 13.20%; 2024 revenue RMB 30.40 billion, accounting for 29.49%; H1 2026 revenue RMB 12.94 billion, accounting for 23.28%, gross margin 1.77%
Other businesses: 2025 revenue RMB 2.309 billion, accounting for 2.16%, gross margin 22.04%; H1 2025 revenue RMB 1.776 billion, accounting for 3.44%, gross margin 14.63%; 2024 revenue RMB 3.967 billion, accounting for 3.85%; H1 2026 revenue RMB 1.208 billion, accounting for 2.17%, gross margin 19.17%
Operating scale: 2025 revenue RMB 106.856 billion, feed sales volume 29.74 million tonnes, hogs sold 17.55 million head, hogs slaughtered 3.68 million head; 2024 revenue RMB 103.063 billion (down -27.27% year-on-year due to divestiture of the poultry/food segments), feed sales volume 25.96 million tonnes (second in the world, including 21.21 million tonnes of external sales feed), hogs sold 16.5249 million head (3.0020 million piglets + 13.5229 million fattening hogs, ranking third among Chinese listed hog companies), 2.78 million head slaughtered; 2023 revenue RMB 141.703 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 249 million
Business coverage: across the country and 15 countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, and Egypt, with more than 600 controlled subsidiaries and branches; more than 60 overseas operating subsidiaries and branches (since "going overseas" in 1999)
Regional structure: H1 2025 domestic RMB 40.82 billion (79.08%, gross margin 7.21%) / overseas RMB 10.80 billion (20.92%, gross margin 10.38%); H1 2026 domestic RMB 42.78 billion (76.95%, gross margin 3.26%) / overseas RMB 12.81 billion (23.05%, gross margin 9.65%) — overseas gross margin significantly higher than domestic
Historical evolution: at the end of 2023, it transferred control of the white-feather poultry and food deep-processing segments, further focusing the business on the two blocks of feed and hog farming and slaughtering (this was also the main reason for the sharp year-on-year decline in 2024 revenue)

2.3 Position in the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream and Cost-Profit Structure

3. Financial Data and Valuation Analysis

3.1 Recent Operating Performance

Reporting period	Operating revenue	Year-on-year	Net profit attributable to shareholders	Year-on-year
2024	Data missing	Data missing	RMB 474 million	Up 90.05% year-on-year
H1 2025	Data missing	Data missing	RMB 755 million	Turned to profit year-on-year
First three quarters of 2025	Data missing	Data missing	RMB 760 million	Up 395.89% year-on-year
Q3 2025	Data missing	Data missing	RMB 5.1255 million	Down 99.63% year-on-year

The research notes only provide net profit and year-on-year change data for full-year 2024, H1 2025, the first three quarters of 2025, and Q3 2025; operating revenue and revenue year-on-year data are missing from the research notes. The 2024 data comes from the company's 2024 annual report, and the H1 2025, first three quarters of 2025, and Q3 2025 data come from the company's Q3 2025 report and related coverage.

New Hope achieved full-year 2024 net profit of RMB 474 million, up 90.05% year-on-year; H1 2025 net profit was RMB 755 million, turning to profit year-on-year; first three quarters of 2025 net profit was RMB 760 million, up 395.89% year-on-year. However, Q3 2025 standalone net profit was only RMB 5.1255 million, down 99.63% year-on-year, indicating that Q3 profitability declined sharply both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Overall, the company's cumulative profit in the first three quarters of 2025 improved significantly, but single-quarter profitability fluctuated considerably.

3.2 Earnings Forecast

The research notes do not provide specific earnings forecast data (such as forecast revenue, net profit, net profit growth rate, EPS, etc. for future years), and only mention the existence of institutional earnings forecast source links without listing specific forecast figures, so a forecast_table cannot be compiled.

3.3 Valuation Level and Institutional Ratings

Institution	Rating	Date	Note
Guotai Haitong Securities	Overweight	2025-12-15	Institutional rating coverage
Hua'an Securities	Buy	2025-09-10	No target price given

The research notes do not provide specific valuation-related data (such as PE, PB, market capitalization, target price, etc.), and only mention the existence of institutional ratings and earnings forecast sources. The institutional ratings already listed include: Guotai Haitong Securities giving an "Overweight" rating (December 15, 2025), and Hua'an Securities giving a "Buy" rating (September 10, 2025, with no target price given). Specific valuation levels and analytical conclusion data are missing.

4. Recent News and Announcements

4.1 Private Placement of A-Shares to Specific Objects Completed and Listed

459,363,957 shares issued, issue price RMB 5.66/share, total funds raised RMB 2,599,999,996.62 (approximately RMB 2.60 billion), net amount after deducting issuance expenses RMB 2,585,310,331.64 (approximately RMB 2.585 billion). The ratio of the issue price to the issue floor price was 100%, and the lead underwriter was China Merchants Securities. Key timeline: 2026-02-12 approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange listing review center; 2026-03-27 registration approval by the CSRC (CSRC Permit [2026] No. 649); 2026-08-17 funds raised received (Sichuan Huaxin capital verification, Chuan Huaxin Yan 2026 No. 0024000); 2026-08-25 China Securities Depository and Clearing accepted registration of the new shares; 2026-09-01 the newly added shares were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Source: cnfin "Listing Announcement," Securities Daily, East Money, China Securities Journal, consistent across multiple sources.

4.2 Controlling Shareholder and Persons Acting in Concert's Shareholding Ratio Passively Diluted, Reaching an Integer Multiple of 1%

Total share capital increased from 4,502,777,158 shares to 4,962,141,115 shares; the controlling shareholder New Hope Group and persons acting in concert (Southern Hope, Xinwang Investment, Haochijie, Liu Yonghao, Li Wei, Liu Chang) did not participate in the subscription, and their combined shareholding ratio was passively diluted from 55.38% to 50.25% (reaching an integer multiple of 1%, announcement No. 2026-95, disclosed 2026-08-29). The controlling shareholder and actual controller were unchanged.

4.3 Adjustment of the Proposed Investment Amount of Raised Funds in Investment Projects (Announcement 2026-76, 2026-08-26)

Because the actual net funds raised were lower than originally planned, the pig farm biosafety prevention and control and digital-intelligence upgrade project was adjusted from RMB 2.338 billion to RMB 1.820 billion; bank debt repayment was adjusted from RMB 1 billion to RMB 765.31 million; the total was adjusted from RMB 3.338 billion to RMB 2.58531 billion. Source: East Money announcements, cnfin.

4.4 Use of Raised Funds to Replace Pre-Invested Self-Raised Funds and Part of Issuance Expenses (Announcement 2026-77, 2026-08-26)

Raised funds were used to replace pre-invested self-raised funds of RMB 794,816,095.42 and issuance expenses already paid of RMB 921,134.30, for a total replacement amount of RMB 795,737,229.72. Source: cnfin announcement.

4.5 Extension of the Validity Period of the Shareholders' Meeting Resolution on the Private Placement of A-Shares to Specific Objects (Announcement 2026-64, 2026-08-11)

The 17th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors (2026-08-10) approved extending the validity period of the shareholders' meeting resolution on the private placement by 12 months to 2027-08-27, and submitted it to the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 (scheduled to be held on 2026-08-26) for review. Source: China Securities Journal, East Money.

4.6 Hope Convertible Bond 2 (127049) Will Not Downwardly Revise the Conversion Price (Announcement 2026-104, disclosed 2026-09-03)

From 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-02, the company's stock had at least 15 trading days out of 30 consecutive trading days with a closing price below 80% of the then-current conversion price, triggering the downward revision clause; the Board of Directors (2026-09-02) decided not to revise downward this time, and also would not propose a downward revision plan if triggered again in the next 4 months (2026-09-03 to 2027-01-02); the count restarts from 2027-01-03. Source: cnfin, East Money, Shanghai Securities News, consistent across multiple sources.

4.7 Hope Convertible Bond 2 Conversion Price Adjusted Due to Private Placement (Announcement 2026-94, 2026-08-29)

Due to the private placement, the conversion price was adjusted from RMB 10.59/share to RMB 10.13/share effective 2026-09-01. Historical evolution: initial RMB 14.45 → 14.40 → 14.39 → revised downward to RMB 10.6 on 2023-12-28 → adjusted to RMB 10.61 on 2025-07-07 → adjusted to RMB 10.59 on 2025-07-25. Maturity date 2027-11-01.

4.8 Hope Convertible Bond 2 Optional Put Result (Announcement 2026-101, 2026-09-03)

Put price RMB 101.267 per bond (including interest and tax), put application period 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-01, only 51 bonds validly applied, put amount RMB 5,164.617, put payment arrival date 2026-09-08; the non-put portion continues trading. The company stated that the put does not affect its financial condition or share capital structure. Source: cnfin, East Money, Shanghai Securities News, consistent across multiple sources.

4.9 Hope Convertible Bond (127015) Maturity Redemption and Delisting

Maturity redemption and delisting in December 2025; the company issued multiple reminder announcements on 2025-12-01, 2025-12-02, 2025-12-24, and other dates.

4.10 Temporary Use of Idle Raised Funds to Supplement Working Capital (Announcement 2026-105, 2026-09-03)

The 20th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors (2026-09-02) approved: use no more than RMB 110 million of idle raised funds to temporarily supplement working capital, for a term not exceeding 12 months, expected to save financial expenses of approximately RMB 1.65 million. These are idle funds from the 2020 non-public issuance (CSRC Permit [2020] No. 1961, total funds raised RMB 3.999 billion, net amount RMB 3.99475 billion); the previous RMB 110 million (reviewed on 2025-09-04) had been fully returned. As of 2026-09-01, the balance in the special raised funds account was RMB 118.1515 million. Source: cnfin announcement.

4.11 August 2026 Hog Sales Briefing (Announcement 2026-106, 2026-09-08)

Sales of commercial hogs 1.2061 million head (down -1.59% month-on-month, up +26.28% year-on-year); commercial hog sales revenue RMB 1.505 billion (0.00% month-on-month, down -1.89% year-on-year); average selling price of commercial hogs RMB 10.46/kg (up +0.38% month-on-month, down -22.75% year-on-year). In the same month, it also sold 74,200 piglets and 51,900 breeding hogs. January–August cumulative sales of commercial hogs 9.5381 million head, cumulative revenue RMB 11.594 billion. Monthly data (announcement appendix): January 1.1218 million head/average price RMB 12.48; February 982,200/11.45; March 1.3047 million/9.74; April 1.2099 million/9.15; May 1.2334 million/9.48; June 1.2544 million/9.35; July 1.2256 million/10.42; August 1.2061 million/10.46 (units: 10,000 head, RMB/kg). Source: Shanghai Securities News, East Money, AASTOCKS, consistent across multiple sources, including the company's own statement that the data are unaudited and may differ from periodic reports.

4.12 July 2026 Hog Sales Briefing (Announcement 2026-62, 2026-08-06)

Commercial hogs 1.2256 million head (up +30.01% year-on-year), revenue RMB 1.505 billion (down -6.17% year-on-year), average price RMB 10.42/kg (down -27.84% year-on-year).

4.13 April 2026 Hog Sales Briefing (Announcement 2026-47, 2026-05-09)

Commercial hogs 1.2099 million head, revenue RMB 1.312 billion (down -32.37% year-on-year), average price RMB 9.15/kg (down -37.76% year-on-year); the announcement expressly stated that the main reason for the change was "a sharp decline in hog prices/oversupply in the market."

4.14 Resignation of Senior Management (Announcement 2026-102, 2026-09-03)

Investment and Development Director Wang Pusong resigned for personal reasons, with the resignation report delivered on 2026-09-01, and after resignation he no longer holds any position in the company; he holds 360,000 company shares (90,000 unrestricted, 270,000 restricted). Source: cnfin, East Money, AASTOCKS (Gelonghui), consistent across multiple sources.

4.15 Director Change: Director Resignation and Election of Employee Representative Director (2025-12-30)

Announcement on director resignation and election of employee representative director. Source: Sohu Stock 000876 Major Events Memo (aggregation page, single source); recommend verifying against the original Cninfo text.

4.16 Announcements Related to Reductions by Shareholders and Directors/Supervisors/Senior Management

2025-10-10 announcement on the expiration and implementation of a director's reduction plan; 2025-09-09 announcement on the implementation of a supervisor's share reduction. Source: Sohu Stock 000876 Major Events Memo (single aggregation source), not cross-verified against authoritative original text.

4.17 Controlling Shareholder's Exchangeable Bond Release of Guarantee and Trust Registration for Part of Shares (2025-12-17)

Announcement on the controlling shareholder's non-public issuance of 2023 exchangeable corporate bonds (first tranche) completing the release of guarantee and trust registration for part of its held shares. Source: Sohu Stock 000876 Major Events Memo (single aggregation source), not cross-verified.

4.18 Progress on Joint External Investment with Central Enterprise Fund and Underdeveloped Region Fund (2025-12-03)

Announcement on progress in joint external investment with a central enterprise fund and an underdeveloped region fund. Source: Sohu Stock 000876 Major Events Memo (single aggregation source), not cross-verified.

4.19 Chairman Liu Yonghao on the Hog Farming Business (Media Report, Not an Announcement)

Around 2026-09-04, New Hope Group Chairman Liu Yonghao said at the Yabuli Forum Summer Annual Meeting (Chengdu) that the hog farming business is indeed still loss-making, but costs are coming down and management is improving, and "this cycle is changing." Source: AASTOCKS composite (according to Ruijian), a media report, not an announcement.

4.20 Full-Year 2025 Results (Announcement 2026-33, 2026-04-29, for Cross-Reference)

2025 operating revenue RMB 106.856 billion, a slight year-on-year increase; affected by one-off factors including the better-than-expected decline in hog prices in Q4, biological asset provisions, and fixed asset disposal, full-year results turned from profit to loss. By business, 2025 feed revenue RMB 76.02 billion (71.14%), hog business RMB 28.53 billion (26.70%). Source: East Money, Securities Daily e-paper.

4.21 H1 2026 Results (Data Missing Note)

The search found that the company has published its H1 2026 report and management discussion and analysis (Stockstar; the private placement documents also cite the 2026-06-30 main business composition: feed RMB 41.44 billion, 74.55%; hog business RMB 12.94 billion, 23.28%). However, this time the official summary figures for H1 2026 specific revenue/net profit/whether a loss was incurred were not obtained, so the data are missing and need separate verification.

4.22 Industry Aspect: Deep Downturn in Hog Prices in 2026 (for Cross-Reference)

Hog prices fell deeply in 2026, with the monthly average price dropping from RMB 12.48/kg in January to RMB 9.15/kg in April, then rebounding slightly to RMB 10.46/kg in August, with year-on-year declines of about 22%–38%, putting the whole industry under pressure.

4.23 Uncertainty Notes

1. Time baseline: the latest announcement retrieved was 2026-09-08; due to search-step limitations, not all announcements from mid-to-late September and October 2026 could be covered; the "current year-month" should be regarded as September 2026, and if updates are needed, please refer to the latest announcements on Cninfo. 2. H1 2026 results: exact official revenue/net profit figures and whether losses continued were not obtained; there are only media/third-party reports that "the hog farming business is still loss-making" and main business composition data, and verification against the original H1 2026 report is recommended. 3. Items such as director/supervisor reductions, director resignation, exchangeable bond release of guarantee, and joint investment with the central enterprise fund appear only on the Sohu Stock "Major Events Memo" aggregation page (single source) and have not been cross-verified against authoritative original text. 4. Core matters such as the private placement, convertible bonds, monthly sales briefings, and senior management resignation were all cross-verified by more than two authoritative sources and have relatively high credibility. 5. Monthly sales data are unaudited interim data disclosed by the company itself, and the company explicitly warns that they may differ from periodic reports.

5. Share Price Trend and Technical Analysis

5.1 Price Overview

Indicator	Value
Closing price	RMB 7.52 (down RMB 0.09, -1.18%)
Open/Previous close/High/Low/Average	7.55 / 7.61 / 7.60 / 7.43 / 7.50
Upper limit/Lower limit	8.37 / 6.85
Total market capitalization	RMB 37.315 billion (4.962 billion shares × 7.52, self-consistent)
Circulating market capitalization	RMB 33.840 billion (4.500 billion shares × 7.52, self-consistent)
Total share capital/Circulating share capital	4.962 billion shares / 4.500 billion shares
Volume/Turnover	558,500 lots / RMB 419 million
Turnover rate/Amplitude/Volume ratio	1.24% / 2.23% / 0.44
Valuation (PE)	Dynamic -10.96, static -20.91, TTM -8.80 (the company has posted losses in recent years, and TTM PE is negative, so it should not be interpreted on a valuation basis)
PB/Net assets per share	Static 1.88, dynamic 1.81 / RMB 3.9933 (7.52/3.9933≈1.88, self-consistent)
Interval change (as of 2026-09-11)	3-day -3.84%; 5-day -2.34%
52-week high	RMB 10.58 (Sina, Baidu Finance, MarketWatch, etnet) / RMB 10.61 (Google Finance, investing.com, Simply Wall St); the two values differ by about 0.3%, and the date of occurrence could not be found, flagged as unknown
52-week low	RMB 5.82 (consistent across multiple sources)

5.2 Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Brief interpretation
Moving averages (as of 2026-09-11, source: Jiufang Zhitou chart labels)	MA5 7.74 / MA10 7.47 / MA20 7.24	MA5>MA10>MA20 is still a bullish alignment, but the current price of 7.52 has fallen below MA5 (7.74), is only slightly above MA10 (7.47), and is clearly above MA20 (7.24) → short-term momentum weakening, while medium-term moving averages still provide support
MACD (2026-09-11, Jiufang Zhitou)	MACD 0.11, DIF 0.19, DEA 0.13	The two lines remain above the zero axis and the golden cross has not broken, but the histogram is weakening; East Money's Thousand-Stock Review judged "no obvious signal for now"; Jiufang Zhitou described a golden cross below the zero axis on August 26, the two lines crossing above the zero axis on August 27, and a "single bullish candle piercing 5 lines" on September 4, but it is currently in a "strong correction," and caution is needed against MACD forming a death cross again
RSI(14)	2026-09-09 (price then 7.91): 72.16 (overbought); 2026-09-03 (price then 7.00): 40.44	Both are from September 9 and earlier; the stock price has already fallen about 5% on September 10–11, so the current actual RSI has most likely fallen from overbought to a neutral-to-low range, but the September 11 RSI value was not obtained and must be flagged as "current value not verified"
Bollinger Bands (BOLL)	Could not obtain the exact upper/middle/lower band values for 2026-09-11 (East Money and Stockstar technical pages are JS-rendered or show "--")	This item is a data gap. Approximate anchors available: MA20=7.24 (middle-band proxy), chip resistance 7.95/8.83, support 6.91, to be supplemented with subsequent data
Other technical modules (marketscreener)	Short-term resistance 7.00, medium-term 7.32, long-term 8.24; support 5.95/5.95/6.08	This snapshot price shows RMB 6.900 = around September 4, so the timing lags and is for structural reference only, not for current judgment
Chip distribution (as of 2026-09-11, Jiufang Zhitou)	Profit ratio 45.51%; average holding cost RMB 7.96; average chip cost RMB 7.95; resistance RMB 8.83; support RMB 6.91; 90% cost range RMB 6.40–9.96, concentration 21.76%; 70% cost range RMB 6.89–9.42, concentration 15.51%	The current price of 7.52 is below the average chip holding cost of 7.96, the area around RMB 7.95 above is a dense trapped-position zone; below, RMB 6.89–6.91 is relative chip support
Strength trend/Bull-bear dividing line (Jiufang Zhitou)	Bull-bear dividing point RMB 7.33	"An effective break below would enter a bearish market"
Recent price trajectory (compiled from multiple sources)	Around 2026-06-26 about RMB 6.09; 2026-09-03 closed at RMB 7.00; 2026-09-04 limit-up to RMB 7.70 (+10.00%); 2026-09-08 about RMB 7.82 (inferred from "3-day decline -3.84%"); 2026-09-09 closed at RMB 7.91; 2026-09-11 fell back to RMB 7.52	A rapid rally in early September (about 7.00→7.91), followed by consecutive pullbacks, with declines on both September 10 and September 11

The subject is New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (000876.SZ) on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange main board, mainly engaged in feed (68.72% of H1 2025) + hog farming and slaughtering (27.83%), with poultry and food processing as well. As of the 2026-09-11 close, the price was RMB 7.52, down 1.18%, with total market capitalization RMB 37.315 billion and circulating market capitalization RMB 33.840 billion; turnover RMB 419 million, turnover rate 1.24%, volume ratio 0.44. The company has posted losses in recent years, and both TTM/dynamic PE are negative (-8.80/-10.96), so they should not be interpreted on a valuation basis. Technically, MA5>MA10>MA20 remains a bullish alignment, but the current price has fallen below MA5 and is only slightly above MA10, indicating weakening short-term momentum; the two MACD lines remain above the zero axis with the golden cross unbroken, but the histogram is weakening; on chips, the current price is below the average holding cost of RMB 7.96, the area around RMB 7.95 above is a dense trapped-position zone, and below, RMB 6.89–6.91 is relative chip support; the bull-bear dividing point is RMB 7.33. The stock price is in the lower half of the 52-week range (7.52 vs 5.82–10.58) and has fallen significantly over the past year. Capital flow sources conflict: Stockstar's weekly review (2026-09-13) said that this week main funds had a total net outflow of RMB 62.5732 million, and on September 11 main funds had a net sell of RMB 14.335 million, while Jiufang Zhitou's same-page data are self-contradictory (claiming both a cumulative inflow of RMB 176.1529 million over the past 10 days and a main-fund outflow ratio of -1.81% over the past 10 days). Exact Bollinger upper/middle/lower band values, the September 11 RSI value, and the dates of the 52-week high and low are all data gaps.

5.3 Short-Term Trend Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Projection, for Reference Only)

⚠️ Risk warning: The following content is only a subjective scenario projection based on the 2026-09-11 closing data and historical prices and technical indicators. The listed scenario weights are subjective experience-based weights based on the current technical/capital-flow setup, not statistical probabilities, and do not constitute any investment advice.

① Key Technical Levels

Level	Range	Description
Short-term pressure	RMB 7.74–7.96	The upper trapped-position dense zone formed by the overlap of MA5 (7.74) and average holding/cost price (7.96); only after breaking above and holding this range can the stock be expected to challenge the chip resistance area around RMB 8.83
First support	RMB 7.33–7.47	Formed by MA10 (7.47) and the bull-bear dividing point (7.33); an effective break below RMB 7.33 would enter a bearish market, with the next target pointing to MA20 (7.24)
Strong support	RMB 6.89–7.24	The overlap of MA20 (7.24) and the lower edge of the 70% chip cost range/chip support (6.89–6.91); if strong support is broken, the downside opens to the lower edge of the 90% cost range at RMB 6.40 and further toward the 52-week low of RMB 5.82

② Next-Week Scenarios (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

Range-bound consolidation (relatively high weight, about 60% (subjective experience-based weight, not statistical probability)): the stock price repeatedly digests the profit-taking from the rapid early-September rally within the RMB 7.33–7.96 range; the premise is that the bullish moving-average alignment is not broken and the MACD golden cross does not turn into a death cross. Trigger/confirmation conditions: turnover remains at recent normal levels, with no obvious volume breakout or breakdown of key levels, and the sector (hog farming/feed) remains generally stable.
Weaker downside (medium weight (subjective experience-based weight, not statistical probability)): if it breaks below first support at RMB 7.33 (the bull-bear dividing line) and simultaneously loses MA10 (7.47), combined with MACD forming a new death cross at a high level, it may probe MA20 (7.24) or even the strong support zone of RMB 6.89–6.91; if strong support is effectively broken, the downside opens to RMB 6.40 and points to the 52-week low of RMB 5.82. Trigger conditions: main funds continue net outflows (such as the RMB 14.335 million net sell level on September 11) or the broader market/sector weakens.
Rebound and strengthening (relatively low weight (subjective experience-based weight, not statistical probability)): if it recovers MA5 (7.74) on increased volume and attacks the trapped-position dense zone above RMB 7.95, there may be a short-term repair of the September 10–11 pullback. Trigger conditions: single-day turnover clearly expands versus recent norms, the sector sees a catalyst (such as news related to hog prices/feed), and the MACD histogram strengthens again while RSI turns strong again after falling from overbought.

③ Capital and Liquidity Background

On liquidity, as of 2026-09-11, the turnover rate was 1.24%, turnover was RMB 419 million, and volume ratio was 0.44, with volume clearly low. Main-fund data sources conflict and must be listed side by side: Stockstar's weekly review (2026-09-13) showed that this week main funds had a total net outflow of RMB 62.5732 million, and on September 11 main funds had a net sell of RMB 14.335 million; while Jiufang Zhitou's same page is self-contradictory, claiming both "a cumulative inflow of RMB 176.1529 million over the past 10 days" and "a main-fund outflow ratio of -1.81% over the past 10 days, with relatively strong capital flight," so the short-term direction of main funds cannot be confirmed. On chip structure, as of 2026-09-11, the profit ratio was 45.51%, average holding cost RMB 7.96, 90% cost range RMB 6.40–9.96 (concentration 21.76%), 70% cost range RMB 6.89–9.42 (concentration 15.51%); the current price is below the average holding cost, there is trapped-position pressure around RMB 7.95 above, and RMB 6.89–6.91 is relative chip support below. Data on the top ten shareholders and whether they include public funds/social security/QFII and other institutional holdings were not provided in the research notes and cannot be confirmed, and such data are usually lagged by more than one quarter and the structure may have changed. It should be noted that all shareholder/chip data appearing in the notes are as of 2026-09-11 (Jiufang Zhitou convention) and represent only a snapshot at that point.

Volume confirmation signal: if single-day turnover continues to expand clearly versus recent norms (around RMB 400 million), it can be regarded as an observational signal of capital participation; conversely, if turnover continues to shrink and the volume ratio remains low near 0.44, the range-bound, weaker pattern may continue.

④ Points to Watch (Observation Ideas Only, Not Operational Instructions)

Watch whether the short-term pressure zone of RMB 7.74–7.96 (the overlap of MA5 and average chip holding cost) can be effectively recovered, and whether, after breaking above, it can challenge chip resistance at RMB 8.83
Watch the gains and losses at the RMB 7.33 bull-bear dividing point and MA10 (RMB 7.47); a break below may open room to probe MA20 (RMB 7.24) and strong support at RMB 6.89–6.91
Watch whether turnover can continue to expand versus recent norms (about RMB 400 million) as a verification signal of capital participation, and whether the low-volume state with a volume ratio of 0.44 persists
Watch whether the MACD histogram weakens again or even forms a death cross, and the actual RSI value on September 11 (not obtained in the notes, to be supplemented later). All of the above are observation ideas, not operational instructions

The above scenario projection is based on the 2026-09-11 closing data and calculations from historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term stock prices will also be disturbed by multiple factors such as news, capital flows, and the broader market environment. Technical indicators themselves have lag and limitations, do not guarantee actual future trends, and do not constitute buy or sell advice. Please make independent judgments in light of the latest market information and bear investment risks yourself.

6. Industry Landscape and Competitor Analysis

7. Risk Warnings

Continued hog price decline prevents recovery in hog business profitability: in August 2026, the average selling price of commercial hogs was RMB 10.46/kg, down -22.75% year-on-year; in April, the average price was as low as RMB 9.15/kg, down -37.76% year-on-year; the company's announcement expressly stated the main reason as "a sharp decline in hog prices/oversupply in the market"; the hog business gross margin has fallen from 13.20% in H1 2025 to 1.77% in H1 2026. If hog prices remain low, this segment may continue to drag down overall performance.
H1 2026 already turned from profit to loss, with a relatively large loss: H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders was -RMB 1.702 billion, a reversal from the cumulative profit of RMB 760 million in the first three quarters of 2025 (up +395.89% year-on-year); full-year 2025 also turned from profit to loss, mainly affected by one-off factors such as the better-than-expected decline in Q4 hog prices, biological asset provisions, and fixed asset disposal. Continuous losses may weaken the balance sheet and financing capacity.
Share dilution from the private placement and shrinkage of fundraising projects: total share capital increased from 4,502,777,158 shares to 4,962,141,115 shares, and the shareholding ratio of the controlling shareholder and persons acting in concert was passively diluted from 55.38% to 50.25%; because the actual net funds raised of approximately RMB 2.585 billion were lower than originally planned, investment in the pig farm biosafety prevention and control and digital-intelligence upgrade project was reduced from RMB 2.338 billion to RMB 1.820 billion, and bank debt repayment was reduced from RMB 1 billion to RMB 765.31 million, so the originally planned investment intensity could not be fully implemented.
Convertible bond-related uncertainty: Hope Convertible Bond 2 (127049) triggered the conversion price downward revision clause between August 13 and September 2, 2026; the company decided not to revise downward this time and also not to propose a downward revision plan if triggered again in the next 4 months (2026-09-03 to 2027-01-02); the conversion price was adjusted from RMB 10.59/share to RMB 10.13/share due to the private placement, with a maturity date of 2027-11-01. If the stock price continues to remain below the conversion price, there will still be put and redemption pressure. In the optional put, only 51 bonds were validly applied, with a put amount of RMB 5,164.617; although the impact is limited, the clause game continues.
Feed main business gross margin is thin and fell in H1 2026: H1 2026 feed revenue was RMB 41.44 billion, accounting for 74.55%, but gross margin was only 5.23%, lower than 5.38% in H1 2025; full-year 2025 feed revenue was RMB 76.02 billion with a gross margin of 5.10%. Under a low-margin structure, the feed business provides limited support to overall profit, and raw material price fluctuations pass directly through to the cost side.
Weak domestic business profitability and rising overseas dependence: H1 2026 domestic revenue was RMB 42.78 billion with a gross margin of only 3.26%, down clearly from 7.21% in H1 2025; overseas revenue was RMB 12.81 billion with a gross margin of 9.65%, and its share rose from 20.92% to 23.05%. Profitability is increasingly dependent on overseas markets, while overseas operations involve 15 countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Egypt, carrying additional uncertainties such as exchange rates, policy, and geopolitics.
Key executive changes and unclear capital-flow signals: Investment and Development Director Wang Pusong resigned for personal reasons on September 1, 2026, and no longer holds any position in the company; he holds 360,000 company shares (90,000 unrestricted, 270,000 restricted); at the same time, main-fund data sources conflict. Stockstar said that in the week of September 11, 2026, main funds had a total net outflow of RMB 62.5732 million, and on that day a net sell of RMB 14.335 million, while Jiufang Zhitou's same-page data are self-contradictory, so the short-term direction of funds cannot be confirmed.
Judgment uncertainty caused by data gaps: the complete official summary figures for H1 2026 revenue and net profit, exact Bollinger upper/middle/lower band values, the actual RSI value on September 11, 2026, and the dates of the 52-week high and low are all data gaps; the share capital convention is also inconsistent (the annual report dividend base of approximately 4.526 billion shares does not match the registered capital of RMB 4.962 billion listed by data vendors), and some shareholder/reduction/exchangeable bond matters appear only in a single aggregation source and have not been cross-verified against authoritative original text, which may affect judgment of the company's true financial condition.

8. Conclusion and Outlook

The growth logic mainly comes from three threads. First, sales volume is still expanding: August 2026 commercial hog sales rose +26.28% year-on-year, and cumulative January–August sales were 9.5381 million head. If hog prices stabilize, volume growth will amplify profit elasticity. Second, there is room for cost reduction: the company mentioned on its conference call that some hog farming costs have entered the RMB 12/kg range, with about RMB 0.5/kg of further downside, and cost improvement is key to getting through the cyclical trough. Third, the scale of the feed main business is solid (2025 sales volume 29.74 million tonnes, second in the world in 2024), with H1 2026 revenue of RMB 41.44 billion, accounting for 74.55%, providing a relatively stable cash flow foundation, and the overseas business gross margin (9.65% in H1 2026) is significantly higher than domestic (3.26%), so going overseas may become a structural incremental driver. In addition, the arrival of about RMB 2.6 billion in private placement funds helps ease balance sheet pressure, of which about RMB 1.820 billion is invested in pig farm biosafety prevention and control and digital-intelligence upgrades, and about RMB 765.31 million is used to repay bank debt.

The risks and constraints are equally clear. Hog prices are the largest uncontrollable variable: the 2026 monthly average price fell from RMB 12.48/kg in January to RMB 9.15/kg in April, and although it rebounded to RMB 10.46/kg in August, it was still down 22.75% year-on-year. The April announcement expressly stated the main reason for the change as "a sharp decline in hog prices/oversupply in the market," putting the whole industry under pressure. The hog business gross margin fell sharply from 13.20% in H1 2025 to 1.77% in H1 2026, indicating that cost reduction is not yet enough to offset the price decline. Full-year 2025 already turned from profit to loss (affected by one-off factors such as the better-than-expected decline in Q4 hog prices, biological asset provisions, and fixed asset disposal), and H1 2026 further lost RMB 1.702 billion, with low earnings visibility. In addition, the private placement increased total share capital from 4.503 billion shares to 4.962 billion shares, creating a dilutive effect on earnings per share; Hope Convertible Bond 2 repeatedly triggered the downward revision clause while the company decided not to revise downward and not to propose a downward revision plan in the next four months, reflecting a cautious attitude toward further share dilution, but the conversion price was still adjusted from RMB 10.59/share to RMB 10.13/share due to the private placement. Technical and capital-flow signals are also weak: the current price has fallen below MA5 and is only slightly above MA10, the MACD histogram is weakening, and main-fund data sources conflict (Stockstar said this week saw a net outflow of RMB 62.5732 million and September 11 saw a net sell of RMB 14.335 million, while Jiufang Zhitou's same-page data are self-contradictory), so the short-term direction of funds cannot be confirmed.

Data Sources

Reports are generated by AI from public online information and may contain errors or outdated information. They are for research only, not investment advice. Verify material facts against company filings and authoritative sources.