Haohua Technology (600378)

Equity Research Report　|　Industry: Advanced Chemical Materials　|　Report Date: 2026-10-26　|　Market data as of the close on 2026-10-23

This report was automatically compiled and generated by AI based on publicly available information. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

Core conclusion: The earnings recovery has materialized, but the valuation still assumes continued growth; the third quarter is a key test

Market data as of the close on 2026-10-23

1. Key Investment Points

• First-half profit growth significantly outpaced revenue: 2026H1 revenue was RMB 9.690 billion, up 24.87% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 901 million, up 39.78%, while adjusted net profit grew 43.09% year on year, showing that the earnings recovery has extended to adjusted profit.
• The fluoromaterials cycle is the current primary growth engine: High-end fluoromaterials accounted for approximately 59.5% of 2025 revenue, up 30.83% year on year. Improved refrigerant supply and demand, capacity expansion from new projects, and higher production and sales volumes have jointly supported growth.
• Historical valuation is low, but the stock still carries a premium to peers: At a closing price of RMB 35.42, PE-TTM was 26.86x and PB-MRQ was 2.45x. PE was at the 13th percentile over the past 5.2 years, but remained above the peer median of 15.83x; the 2026E forecast PE was approximately 21.5x.

Market Expectations and Evidence

• What the market is pricing in: The consensus forecast calls for net profit growth of 47.3% and 20.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively; the current price implies average annual EPS growth of 14.5% over 10 years. The former refers to short-term net profit growth and the latter to long-term EPS growth. Their time horizons and metrics differ, so the rates cannot be directly compared.
• What the evidence shows: Revenue, attributable net profit, and adjusted net profit all grew in the first half, confirming a fundamental recovery; however, the third-quarter forecast did not provide a profit range, and institutions’ 2026 net profit estimates range from RMB 1.678 billion to RMB 2.517 billion. The extent to which results meet expectations remains to be confirmed by the third-quarter report.

Evidence leans: Bullish; Confidence: High (key financial figures checked against the official original text)

First-half adjusted profit growth outpaced revenue, while valuation is near its own historical low; however, the extent of third-quarter delivery remains unclear, the forecast range is wide, and PE still carries a premium to peers.

2. Business and Competitiveness

2.1 Business Structure

The company generates revenue through sales of fluoromaterials, manufacturing of chemical materials and electronic chemicals, and chemical engineering design and technical services, relying on product sales, technology commercialization, and project services.

2.2 Competitive Advantages

Strength of competitive advantages: Weak

• R&D commercialization: R&D investment was RMB 974 million in 2025, or 5.84% of revenue
• R&D team: 3,513 R&D employees in 2025, accounting for 28% of the total workforce
• Refrigerant production quotas constrain supply, but apply only to relevant products

Key threats: Overcapacity in fluoropolymers, expanding supply of electronic specialty gases, and a reshaping of pricing structures for high-end manufactured materials could weigh on profits.

2.3 Value-Chain Position and Profitability Trends

• Key purchases include hydrofluoric acid, lithium fluoride, chloroform, crude rubber, ribbed smoked sheets, polyether polyols, MDI, TDI, xylene, and epoxy resin; electronic specialty gases also use ammonia.
• In 2025, chemical direct raw materials accounted for approximately 66.55% of chemical costs, and 70.42% for the high-end fluoromaterials segment. Raw materials are procured on the market, limiting the company’s pricing power over commodities.
• Products are sold to customers in refrigerants, fluorinated materials, electronic specialty gases, specialty tires, polyurethane, and engineering services, with sales conducted through both direct sales and distributors.
• Pricing is negotiated based on market demand, costs, and a required profit margin; standardized fluorochemical products are affected by supply and demand, quotas, and market prices, with bargaining power varying by product.
• The 2025 annual report disclosed that the top five customers accounted for 11.10% of sales and the top five suppliers for 21.93% of purchases; only the 2025 annual reporting basis is currently available.
• At the end of 2025, accounts receivable totaled RMB 2.662 billion, equivalent to 15.95% of full-year revenue and approximately 1.84x attributable net profit; the closing balance was equivalent to approximately 58 days of revenue. Accounts payable amounted to RMB 2.663 billion, notes payable to RMB 1.779 billion, and contract assets to RMB 517 million.

The company operates in midstream manufacturing of advanced chemical materials and engineering technical services. Profit improvement relies mainly on the supply-and-demand and quota cycle for refrigerants, project ramp-up and economies of scale, and product-mix upgrades in high-end materials. Consolidation and retrospective adjustments affected the 2023–2025 reporting scope, so the trend should not be treated as a simple like-for-like series.

2.4 Industry and Peer Comparison

Improved refrigerant supply and demand and quota constraints support prices for related products, but overcapacity in fluoropolymers and expanding supply of electronic specialty gases remain competitive pressures. The company’s growth depends on both ramping up new capacity and improving its product mix.

Haohua Technology’s 2025 revenue was higher than that of the comparable companies above, but its businesses also include manufactured materials, electronic chemicals, and engineering services. Its high-end manufactured chemical materials have relatively high gross margins, while the fluoromaterials business is driven by the refrigerant cycle. Peers each have advantages in refrigerant concentration, vertical integration, or cost control for individual products.

3. Financial Quality

3.1 Operating Performance

Revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are presented using the official reports for the same periods and with currencies explicitly stated; adjusted earnings and statutory profit are compared separately. All 6 figures for revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders have been checked item by item against the issuer’s original periodic reports. All 6 YoY growth rates recalculated from the current- and prior-period figures in the original text match the table.

Revenue, attributable net profit, and adjusted net profit all grew in 2026H1, with adjusted profit growing faster. The company said higher refrigerant and electrolyte sales volumes and prices drove growth. Net profit attributable to shareholders in the quarter covered by the interim report increased 92.49% quarter on quarter.

3.2 Financial Health Check

4. Valuation and Market Expectations

4.1 Valuation

Valuation multiples were calculated programmatically using closing data as of 2026-10-23 (trailing twelve-month basis); peer multiples were calculated using the same methodology and closing data as of 2026-10-23.

Market-implied expectations: At the current PE of 26.86x, if investors require an annualized return of 8% and the stock is valued at 15x PE in 10 years, EPS would need to grow by approximately 14.5% annually on average (excluding dividends; a conservative assumption). Short-term institutional net profit forecasts differ in time horizon and basis from this long-term EPS growth rate, so they cannot be directly compared.

PE-TTM of 26.86x, PB-MRQ of 2.45x, and PS-TTM of 2.45x are at the 13th, 22nd, and 8th percentiles, respectively, over the past 5.2 years, indicating low historical valuations; however, PE is above the peer median of 15.83x. The current price implies average annual EPS growth of 14.5% over 10 years. Institutional short-term net profit growth forecasts differ in time horizon and metric, so they cannot be directly compared; the valuation still depends on earnings being sustained.

4.2 Consensus Estimates

East Money research reports from the past six months, as of 2026-10-26. Available institutional report details; analyst counts are listed separately: 10 estimates for 2026E net profit and 10 for EPS; 10 estimates for 2027E net profit and 10 for EPS; 10 estimates for 2028E net profit and 10 for EPS.

4.3 Institutional Views

1 firm, with a target price of RMB 62.3; the latest report is from Huatai Securities, dated 2026-08-28.

5. Catalysts and Recent Events

5.1 Key Upcoming Milestones

5.2 Recent Major Events

• 2026-10-14 Third-quarter earnings forecast released (Positive): The company released its 2026 third-quarter earnings forecast, with the meeting notes confirming that the forecast points to growth; the specific profit range and YoY growth rate were not provided, and earnings upside remains to be verified by the third-quarter report.
• 2026-10-08 Fluorochemical business boundaries agreed with Luxi Chemical (Neutral): Luxi Chemical confirmed that the parties had signed a fluorochemical product cooperation framework agreement, delineating competitive boundaries by product specifications; no paid transaction or asset transfer is involved, so the short-term earnings impact is limited.
• 2026-10-23 AI liquid-cooling product initiatives disclosed (Neutral): The company disclosed cooling-fluid products including phase-change immersion, single-phase immersion, and cold-plate liquid cooling, and is advancing validation with several leading customers; revenue scale has not yet been disclosed, so the initiative cannot yet be considered a realized earnings contribution.
• 2026-08-27 Interim report disclosed contribution from new products (Positive): New products generated revenue of RMB 3.301 billion and profit of RMB 439 million in the first half. The company put 28 new products into production during the year, adding RMB 256 million in revenue and RMB 35.39 million in profit, demonstrating that new products are supplementing growth.

6. Bull-Bear Debate and Risks

6.1 Bull Case

• Cash flow covers profit: The 2026H1 net operating cash flow/net profit ratio was 1.17, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 42.13%, indicating manageable financial pressure.
• New products are already making a tangible contribution: In 2026H1, new products generated revenue of RMB 3.301 billion and profit of RMB 439 million; 28 products were put into production during the year, so growth is not dependent solely on existing products.

6.2 Bear Case

• Expansion of high-margin manufactured materials is relatively slow: The segment’s gross margin was 39.16% in 2025, but revenue growth was only 3.39%; the high-margin segment has yet to become a major source of incremental growth.
• Raw-material price increases could erode profits: Chemical direct raw materials accounted for 66.55% of chemical costs, and key materials are procured on the market, limiting the company’s pricing power.
• Earnings forecasts vary widely: 10 institutions forecast 2026 net profit of RMB 1.678 billion to RMB 2.517 billion, leaving significant uncertainty over whether growth will be delivered.

6.3 Other Risks

• AI liquid-cooling products remain in customer validation, with no revenue scale disclosed → If validation-to-mass-production conversion is delayed, the new business may not support incremental growth expectations.
• The year-end target is to add 2 civil aviation maintenance PMA entities with certification qualifications → If certification or business implementation is delayed, the associated revenue contribution will be deferred.
• In 2026H1, accounts receivable and inventory rose 28.99% and 32.52%, respectively, from the start of the period → If they continue to grow faster than revenue, they could tie up cash and increase impairment pressure.

7. Monitoring Checklist

8. Share Price and Short-Term Outlook (Next Week, Scenario Analysis for Reference Only)

⚠️ Scenario weights are subjective assessments based on current technical and fund-flow conditions, not statistical probabilities; this does not constitute investment advice.

8.1 Technical Overview

The share price is significantly below its medium- and long-term moving averages, and the stock has fallen sharply over the past 20 days; the weak trend has yet to reverse. RSI is at a low level and the negative MACD histogram is narrowing, leaving room for a technical rebound, but confirmation from price and volume is still needed.

8.2 Key Price Levels

8.3 One-Week Range Estimated Using Historical Volatility

Using the price of RMB 35.42 on 2026-10-23 as the base, the closing price range for the next 5 trading days is estimated from the return distribution over the past 300 trading days (scaled using the current index-weighted daily volatility of approximately 3.4%, while retaining this stock’s own frequency of large rises and falls):

The interval includes the scheduled release of the 2026 third-quarter report (2026-10-30); it has been widened by approximately 0% based on the stock’s actual volatility on past earnings announcement dates.

This range reflects only the stock’s recent volatility and does not indicate the direction of future price movements; actual performance may exceed the range in the event of a major announcement or a sharp market decline.

8.4 Scenarios for the Next Week (Subjective Weights, Not Statistical Probabilities)

• Range-bound consolidation (relatively higher weight, approximately 40%): Support near RMB 33.05 holds, but the share price fails to recover above RMB 36.74 on higher volume; the expected closing range next week is RMB 33.0–37.0. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price one week later falling within this range is approximately 45%.
• Downside bias (medium weight, approximately 30%): The share price breaks below RMB 33.05 on higher volume, and the third-quarter report or sector performance is weak; watch the RMB 31.5–33.0 range. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price one week later falling within this range is approximately 10%.
• Strong rebound (medium weight, approximately 30%): The third-quarter report supports expectations and the share price recovers above RMB 36.74 on higher volume; the short-term range to watch is RMB 36.7–40.4. Based on historical volatility, the probability of the closing price one week later falling within this range is approximately 30%.

The weights in parentheses are subjective; the probabilities at the end of each sentence are derived from the volatility ranges above and reflect only the magnitude of volatility, not the direction.

8.5 Fund Flows and Liquidity

Over the past 10 trading days (2026-10-12–2026-10-23), daily trading value was approximately RMB 750 million–1.063 billion and the turnover rate was approximately 1.88%–2.66%. As of 2026-06-30, the top 10 tradable shareholders collectively held 63.33% of shares, including a 55.03% stake held by China Haohua Chemical Group; mutual funds and other investors also held shares. Shareholder disclosures are subject to a lag, so the ownership structure may have changed; given the relatively high concentration, changes in trading activity could affect short-term liquidity.

If daily trading value exceeds the upper end of the past 10-day range of RMB 1.063 billion for two consecutive days and the share price recovers above RMB 36.74, this could be viewed as a signal of improving price-volume dynamics.

The above scenario analysis is based on closing data as of 2026-10-23 and estimates using historical prices and technical indicators. Short-term share-price performance may also be affected by multiple factors, including news, fund flows, and overall market conditions. Technical indicators are inherently lagging and limited; they do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. Please make an independent assessment based on the latest market information and assume your own investment risks.

Sources

• 昊华科技(600378)_公司公告_昊华科技：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 昊华科技(600378)_公司公告_昊华科技：2022年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 巨化股份2025-v15
• 公司公告_三美股份：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 永和股份(605020)_公司公告_永和股份：2025年年度报告新浪财经_新浪网
• 昊华科技2026年半年度报告
• 昊华科技2025年年度报告
• 昊华科技2024年年度报告
• 昊华科技2023年年度报告
• 腾讯财经行情（2026-10-23）
• 东方财富F10 合并资产负债表（2026中报）
• 东方财富 F10 盈利预测
• 昊华科技:昊华科技2026年半年度报告
• 昊华科技
• 【调研快报】昊华科技接待中信建投证券等26家机构调研
• 昊华科技获26家机构调研：公司针对AI液冷服务器已布局形成多产品矩阵，产品包括相变浸没液冷冷却液YL-10、单相浸没液冷冷却液YL-70、相变冷板液冷冷却液HP-1和HFC-134a等（附调研问答）
• 昊华科技(600378.SH)公司大事-PC_HSF10资料 - 大事提醒
• 昊华科技获机构调研，包括中信建投证券、乾图证券、中信证券、中银证券、兴业证券等26家机构
• 昊华科技(600378)
• 问答
• finance.sina.com.cn
• 东方财富 个股资金流向
• 东方财富 股东研究

This report was automatically researched, compiled, and generated by AI based on publicly available information. The information is current as of the close on 2026-10-23 and may be subject to timing differences. Please refer to the company’s official announcements and authoritative data terminals for specific figures. This report is for informational and research reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and assume their own investment risks.